The Mercedes Championship

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Tiger cave Stuart Appleby the gift that keeps giving. For the second year in a row, the world's top player opted out of competitiveness in this week's season-opening Mercedes Championship.

I'm not questioning his reason in either case — spending time with his ailing father last year and citing lack of prep time this year because he's been taking some R and R on the slopes. And you can be sure Appleby is happy about all that snow in Colorado: Tiger's absence this week makes it a whole lot easier for Appleby to win his fourth straight Mercedes, which might give the Aussie something of a toe hold for the Hall of Fame if he continues to win a tournament here and there for the next ten years as he's done these last ten (he's got 8 for his career).

Four in a row at Kapalua does not amount to one major, mind you, but it's not insignificant considering the caliber of players in the small field year in and year out, especially the caliber of players who 'won it in the last decade or so: Tiger (twice), Mickelson (twice), Ernie Els, Sergio Garcia, and Jim Furyk among them. And considering only three players have ever won four in a row.

(Appleby's first two wins at Kapalua, by the way, came with Tiger in the field.)

This was a tough call before Tiger bounced. I was thinking you'd have to take them both in the outright. One line of thinking now that Tiger's out is that other players can give Appleby a run for his history. Jim Furyk would be the most likely candidate. In fact, he's the favorite at 4-1. Then Vijay at 8-1, followed by Adam Scott and Appleby at 10-1. Coming off a great year and playing on his (second) home course, it's hard not to take Furyk. You have to figure he's going to be close — in addition to the win in 2001, Furyk's only finished out of the top-10 twice in nine tries, and he's finished in the top-5 in four of the nine. So then … a right candidate for the head-to-head. Problem there, though, because he's matched up with Appleby. A tough call that it's probably best to stay away from.
All odds from willhill.com.

At this week's Mercedes Championship, take Appleby (10-1), 1/6 unit, and Furyk at 4-1, 1/6 unit.

The other guy I can not ignore is Geoff Ogilvy. Last year he was T13 in his first Mercedes. First-time winners are on the rare side in this tournament. Ogilvy looked too good for most of last year, he's playing with so much confidence, I have to take him at 12-1, 1/6 unit.

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